ZIP CODE 85204 // PHOENIX-MESA-CHANDLER, AZ // DATA AS OF 2026-09-30
Mesa, AZ (85204) Rental Property Cap Rate & Cash Flow Report
Located in Maricopa County (Mesa, AZ), Zip Code 85204 ranks #335 of 500 within this selected sample (33th percentile) with a Zillow ZHVI typical home-value index of $387,919 (-0.7% YoY) and a ZORI observed market rent of $1,376/mo (-0.8% YoY). Requires at least 64.6% down payment at 6.5% interest to reach $0/mo break-even cash flow. This model combines different housing populations; it is not an observed average property return. Costs assume state-average tax, 0.5% annual insurance, 13% reserves and no HOA or management. Figures below follow your edits; this headline describes the original benchmark.
Net Monthly Cash Flow
-$1,094/mo
Annual: -$13,130/yr
Modeled Cap Rate
2.68%
NOI: $10,408/yr
Cash-on-Cash Return
-14.72%
Cash Needed: $89,221
1% Rule Ratio
0.35%
Gross Yield: 4.26%
Break-Even Rent
$2,634/mo
State Tax: 0.52%/yr
INTERACTIVE PRO-FORMA STATEMENT (ZIP 85204 BENCHMARK)
Edit any value
Purchase Price (ZHVI proxy)
Monthly Gross Rent (ZORI proxy)
Down Payment (%)
Interest Rate (30Y Fixed %)
Annual Property Tax (AZ Avg 0.52%)
Annual Home Insurance ($)
Monthly HOA Fee ($)
Monthly Debt Service (P&I)
-$1,962/mo
Monthly Operating Expenses (Tax + Ins + 13% Reserves)
-$509/mo
HISTORICAL ZHVI PRICE VS. ZORI RENT TRAJECTORY (85204)
| Year | ZHVI Value | ZORI Rent | Gross Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $359,103 | $1,366/mo | 4.56% |
| 2022 | $419,336 | $1,425/mo | 4.08% |
| 2023 | $395,460 | $1,422/mo | 4.31% |
| 2024 | $406,175 | $1,428/mo | 4.22% |
| 2025 | $390,688 | $1,387/mo | 4.26% |
| 2026 | $387,919 | $1,376/mo | 4.26% |
COMPARABLE U.S. RENTAL MARKETS
| Zip / City | Price | Rent | Cap Rate | Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85032 Phoenix, AZ | $449,147 | $1,597/mo | 2.69% | -$1,264/mo |
| 85308 Glendale, AZ | $467,433 | $1,707/mo | 2.79% | -$1,276/mo |
| 85383 Peoria, AZ | $636,043 | $2,343/mo | 2.83% | -$1,718/mo |
| 85142 Queen Creek, AZ | $586,082 | $2,206/mo | 2.91% | -$1,542/mo |
| 85301 Glendale, AZ | $305,492 | $1,166/mo | 2.96% | -$790/mo |
| 85338 Goodyear, AZ | $432,143 | $1,688/mo | 3.06% | -$1,084/mo |